Mathematical modeling and forecasting of esophageal and stomach cancer case rate in Kazakhstan

Математическое моделирование и прогнозирование заболеваемости раком пищевода и желудка в Казахстан
Galiya Orazova 1 2, Leonid Karp 2, Gulnar Rakhimbekova 3, Anargul Nogayeva 4
More Detail
1 National Scientific Medical Research Center, Scientific Researches Management Department, Astana, Kazakhstan
2 Astana Medical University, Public Healthcare Department No1, Astana, Kazakhstan
3 Astana Medical University, Internal Diseases and Internship Department, Astana, Kazakhstan
4 National Scientific Medical Research Center, Postgraduate Education Center, Astana Kazakhstan
J CLIN MED KAZ, Volume 2, Issue 40, pp. 43-49. https://doi.org/10.23950/1812-2892-2016-2-43-49
OPEN ACCESS 3964 Views 2662 Downloads
Download Full Text (PDF)

ABSTRACT

Objective. Create a mathematical model and forecast esophageal and stomach cancer case rate in Kazakhstan up to the year 2020.
Methods: It is retrospective, descriptive-analytical study. Primary information sources during performance of this work were indicators of oncological service of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 1990-2014. Forecasting on the level of esophageal and stomach cancer case rate was performed through the development of time-series model and their extrapolation. The length of the forecast period was identified by the length of actual data series. Total forecast in the country up to the year 2020 was made on the basis of data for 1990-2014. Unfortunately, due to the insufficiency of data in archives, we failed to obtain the required volume of data across the country regions for the specified period. Comparatively short regional database, which covers the period from 1999 to 2014, allowed to extrapolate the obtained models for 2-3 years in advance, in our case - up to 2017. Considering the dynamics peculiarities of esophageal and stomach cancer case rate among the country population, the most relevant method for forecasting is the logarithmic function.
Results. According to the results of forecasting, there was some tendency to the growth of esophageal and stomach cancer case rate among the population of Akmola (from 8,900/0000 to 9,650/0000), Almaty (from 5,740/0000 to 6,130/0000) and Kostanay (from 9,450/0000 to 10,590/0000) regions. Based on the forecast of stomach cancer case rate in Zhambyl region, there is a possibility of the growth from 15,00/0000 to 16,00/0000 till the year 2017. In all other regions there was a common tendency to stabilization and decrease in stomach cancer case rate. Nationwide, there is a tendency to the decrease in esophageal cancer (7,90/0000) and stomach cancer (17,00/0000) case rate to the year 2020.
Conclusion. In connection with the identification of esophageal and stomach cancer case rate growth in a certain regions of Kazakhstan during mathematical forecasting, there is a viability of further investigations on the detailed study of possible cause and effect relationships of this phenomenon.
Keywords: esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, Kazakhstan, case rate, forecasting, mathematical model, logarithmic function

CITATION

Orazova G, Karp L, Rakhimbekova G, Nogayeva A. Mathematical modeling and forecasting of esophageal and stomach cancer case rate in Kazakhstan. Journal of Clinical Medicine of Kazakhstan. 2016;2(40):43-9. https://doi.org/10.23950/1812-2892-2016-2-43-49

REFERENCES

  • Ferlay J., Soerjomataram I., Dikshit R., Eser S. et al. Cancer incidence and mortality worldwide: sources, methods and major patterns in GLOBOCAN 2012, International Journal of Cancer, 2015, Vol. 136, No.5, pp. E359-E386.
  • Orazova G.U., Karp L.L, Dossakhanov A.Kh. Trendy zabolevaemosti i smertnosti ot raka pishhevoda i zheludka v Kazahstane (Trends in the incidence and mortality from cancer of the esophagus and stomach in Kazakhstan), Klinicheskaja medicina Kazahstana, 2013, No.1(27), pp.27-31.
  • Abdrahimov B.E. Zlokachestvennye novoobrazovanija i mediko-social’nye aspekty protivorakovoj bor’by v Respublike Kazahstan (Malignancies and medico-social aspects of cancer control in the Republic of Kazakhstan), Almaty, 1996, 225 p.
  • Nugmanov S.N. Jepidemiologija zlokachestvennyh opuholej v Kazahstane (Epidemiology of malignant tumors in Kazakhstan), Alma-Ata, 1969, 278 p.
  • Kajrakbaev M.K. Organizacija protivorakovoj bor’by (The organization of cancer control), Alma-Ata, 1978. - 159 p.
  • Igissinov S., Igissinov N., Moore M.A. et al. Epidemiology of esophageal cancer in Kazakhstan, Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention, 2012, Vol. 13, No.3, pp. 833-836.
  • Igissinov S., Igissinov N., Moore M.A. et al. Component analysis of esophageal cancer incidence in Kazakhstan, Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 2013, Vol. 14, pp.1945-1949.
  • Aksel’ E.M., Davydov M.I. Zabolevaemost’ zlokachestvennymi novoobrazovanijami naselenija Rossii i stran SNG v 2008 g (The incidence of malignant tumors in Russia and CIS countries the population in 2008), Vestnik RONC im. N.N. Blohina RAMN, 2011, T. 22, No.3, p. 55.
  • Galiya Orazova, Leonid Karp, Keun-Young Yoo et al. Stomach cancer morbidity in the Republic of Kazakhstan: Trends and characteristics, Eur J Gen Med, 2015, No.12(4), pp. 282-290.
  • Chaklin A.V. Kraevye osobennosti rasprostranenija zlokachestvennyh opuholej (Boundary features of the spread of cancer), L., 1963, p. 184.
  • Dvojrin V.V. Metody jepidemiologicheskih issledovanij pri zlokachestvennyh opuholjah (Methods of epidemiological research in malignant tumors), M.: Medicina, 1975, 100 p.
  • Arzykulov Zh.A., Sejtkazina G.D., Mahataeva A.Zh., Igisinov S.I. Pokazateli onkologicheskoj sluzhby RK za 2004 god: stat. materialy (Indicators of oncology service of Kazakhstan for 2004: statistical materials), Almaty: KazNIIOiR, 2005, 66 p.
  • Arzykulov Zh.A., Sejtkazina G.D., Mahataeva A.Zh., Sejsenbaeva G.T. Pokazateli onkologicheskoj sluzhby RK za 2005 god: stat. materialy (Indicators of oncology service of Kazakhstan for 2005: statistical materials), Almaty: KazNIIOiR, 2006, 55p. 
  • Arzykulov Zh.A., Sejtkazina G.D., Mahataeva A.Zh., Sejsenbaeva G.T. Pokazateli onkologicheskoj sluzhby RK za 2006 god: stat. materialy (Indicators of oncology service of Kazakhstan for 2006: statistical materials), Almaty: KazNIIOiR, 2007, 50 p.
  • Arzykulov Zh.A., Sejtkazina G.D., Igisinov S.I. et al. Pokazateli onkologicheskoj sluzhby RK za 2007 god: stat. materialy (Indicators of oncology service of Kazakhstan for 2007: statistical materials), Almaty: KazNIIOiR, 2008, 49 p. 16.
  • Arzykulov Zh.A., Sejtkazina G.D., Igisinov S.I. et al. Pokazateli onkologicheskoj sluzhby RK za 2008 god: stat. materialy (Indicators of oncology service of Kazakhstan for 2008: statistical materials), Almaty: KazNIIOiR, 2009, 48 p.
  • Arzykulov Zh.A., Sejtkazina G.D., Igisinov S.I. et al. Pokazateli onkologicheskoj sluzhby RK za 2009 god: stat. materialy (Indicators of oncology service of Kazakhstan for 2009: statistical materials), Almaty: KazNIIOiR, 2010, 54 p. 18.
  • Nurgaziev K.Sh., Sejtkazina G.D., Azhmagambetova A.E., Sejsenbaeva G.T. Pokazateli onkologicheskoj sluzhby Respubliki Kazahstan za 2010 god: stat. materialy (Indicators of oncology service of Kazakhstan for 2010: statistical materials), Almaty: KazNIIOiR, 2011, 108 p.
  • Nurgaziev K.Sh., Sejtkazina G.D., Azhmagambetova A.E. et al. Pokazateli onkologicheskoj sluzhby Respubliki Kazahstan za 2011 god: stat. materialy (Indicators of oncology service of Kazakhstan for 2011: statistical materials), Almaty: KazNIIOiR, 2011, 108 p.
  • Nurgaziev K.Sh., Sejtkazina G.Zh., Bajpeisov D.M. et al. Pokazateli onkologicheskoj sluzhby RK za 2012 g.: stat. materialy (Indicators of oncology service of Kazakhstan for 2012: statistical materials), Almaty, 2013, 104 p. 21.
  • Nurgaziev K.Sh., Sejtkazina G.Zh., Bajpeisov D.M. Pokazateli onkologicheskoj sluzhby RK za 2013 g.: stat. materialy (Indicators of oncology service of Kazakhstan for 2013: statistical materials), Almaty, 2004, 104 p.